San Diego Padres at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Martin MaldonadoBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Randy VasquezPitching4.2 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Cubs- Ian HappBatting2-4
- Shota ImanagaPitching7.1 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 5Swanson grounded into fielder's choice to third, Tucker scored, Turner safe at second on fielding error by third baseman Machado, Suzuki to third.1–3
- 5Turner reached on infield single to shortstop, Happ scored, Suzuki to second, Tucker to third.1–2
- 3Maldonado homered to left (365 feet).1–1
- 1Hoerner walked, Happ scored, Swanson to second, Busch to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 62%
- ML SD +150 / CHC -180
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.2 pts
- CHC: Elo 51.4%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- CHC -161
- SD +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 2.7 – 3.8 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1548 | 1522 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | +13 | SD: Randy Vasquez: team allows 0.26 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CHC: Shota Imanaga: team allows 0.66 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +10 Elo | CHC 51.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 58.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 57.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SD | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 6.73rd of 30 |
| 1st of 301.6 | Runs allowed | 5.122nd of 30 |
| 1st of 30+3.6 | Margin | +1.68th of 30 |
| 10th of 301515 | Opponent Elo | 151114th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301548 | Elo rating | 15229th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 6–1 | 5–4 |
| Last 10 | 6–1 | 5–4 |
| Favorite | 4–1 | 2–0 |
| Underdog | 2–0 | 3–4 |
| Overs–unders | 2–5 | 7–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–5 | 7–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 7–6 CHC in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 13.