Texas Rangers at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Corey SeagerBatting2-5, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Tyler MahlePitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Cubs- Seiya SuzukiBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Shota ImanagaPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Suzuki singled to right, Happ scored.6–2
- 7Seager homered to right (371 feet).6–1
- 5A. García singled to center, Jung scored.5–1
- 5Jung doubled to center, Semien scored.4–1
- 5Heim homered to center (398 feet), Pillar scored.3–1
- 4Busch singled to right, Suzuki scored.1–1
- 1Seager homered to left center (366 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 61%
- ML TEX +145 / CHC -175
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.9 pts
- CHC: Elo 58.0%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- CHC -156
- TEX +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 3.3 – 4.2 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1530 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | +16 | TEX: Tyler Mahle: team allows 0.66 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · CHC: Shota Imanaga: team allows 0.80 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +56 Elo | CHC 58.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 58.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 58.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TEX | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 303.3 | Runs scored | 6.72nd of 30 |
| 14th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.417th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−1.0 | Margin | +2.31st of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 13th of 302–3 | Road vs home | 4–18th of 30 |
| 15th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 15154th of 30 |
| 21st of 301495 | Elo rating | 15305th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 4–8 | 9–5 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 3–5 | 6–1 |
| Underdog | 1–3 | 3–4 |
| Overs–unders | 4–8 | 11–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 3–5 CHC in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.