Tampa Bay Rays at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Jonathan ArandaBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Taj BradleyPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Rangers- Jake BurgerBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Jacob deGromPitching5.2 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Langford homered to left (371 feet), Pillar scored.4–6
- 6Mead doubled to center, Misner scored.4–4
- 6Aranda homered to right (364 feet), DeLuca scored.3–4
- 3B. Lowe homered to right center (387 feet).1–4
- 1Burger homered to left center (429 feet), Langford scored and A. García scored.0–4
- 1Semien homered to left center (389 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 62%
- ML TB +150 / TEX -180
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.5 pts
- TEX: Elo 54.1%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- TEX -161
- TB +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.2 – 4.3 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | +13 | TB: Taj Bradley: team allows 0.36 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TEX: Jacob deGrom: team allows 0.65 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +29 Elo | TEX 54.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 53.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TB | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 2.928th of 30 |
| 2nd of 302.6 | Runs allowed | 3.47th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+1.3 | Margin | −0.516th of 30 |
| 20th of 300–1 | Road vs home | 4–19th of 29 |
| 30th of 301457 | Opponent Elo | 149720th of 30 |
| 16th of 301506 | Elo rating | 149720th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 3–4 | 3–5 |
| Last 10 | 3–4 | 3–5 |
| Favorite | 3–3 | 2–4 |
| Underdog | 0–1 | 1–1 |
| Overs–unders | 1–6 | 1–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–6 | 1–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 3–12 TEX in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 15.