Texas Rangers at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Josh SmithBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Jack LeiterPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Reds- TJ FriedlBatting1-4
- Hunter GreenePitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 4Smith doubled to center, Pederson scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 57%
- ML TEX +120 / CIN -145
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- 0.0 pts
- CIN: Elo 56.6%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- CIN -130
- TEX +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.0 – 4.5 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −12 | +15 | TEX: Jack Leiter: team allows 0.61 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · CIN: Hunter Greene: team allows 0.74 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +46 Elo | CIN 56.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 52.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 53.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TEX | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 302.8 | Runs scored | 4.810th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 3.68th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−1.3 | Margin | +1.211th of 30 |
| 6th of 191–1 | Road vs home | 2–313th of 19 |
| 21st of 301493 | Opponent Elo | 150117th of 30 |
| 20th of 301493 | Elo rating | 149419th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 1–5 | 2–3 |
| Last 10 | 1–5 | 2–3 |
| Favorite | 1–4 | 0–2 |
| Underdog | 0–1 | 2–1 |
| Overs–unders | 1–5 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–5 | 3–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 3–5 CIN in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.