Boston Red Sox at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Wilyer AbreuBatting1-1, 1 RBI
- Richard FittsPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Rangers- Wyatt LangfordBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jacob deGromPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 6A. García homered to left center (431 feet).2–3
- 6Langford homered to right (341 feet).2–2
- 6Abreu scored on error, Wong safe at first on throwing error by third baseman Duran.2–1
- 6Abreu doubled to left, Campbell scored.1–1
- 2Duran hit sacrifice fly to left, Burger scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 58%
- ML BOS +130 / TEX -155
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.0 pts
- TEX: Elo 55.3%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- TEX -140
- BOS +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 3.4 – 4.1 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | +12 | BOS: Richard Fitts: team allows 0.27 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · TEX: Jacob deGrom: team allows 0.61 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +37 Elo | TEX 55.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 53.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 53.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BOS | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 303.0 | Runs scored | 3.318th of 30 |
| 10th of 303.3 | Runs allowed | 3.08th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.3 | Margin | +0.314th of 30 |
| 8th of 151–2 | Road vs home | 2–16th of 15 |
| 19th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 149420th of 30 |
| 20th of 301494 | Elo rating | 149519th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024) |  BOS |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 74–87 | 69–93 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 29–56 | 32–61 |
| Underdog | 45–31 | 37–31 |
| Overs–unders | 81–78–2 | 79–82–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 8–7 TEX in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 15.