Boston Red Sox at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Wilyer AbreuBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Tanner HouckPitching5.2 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Rangers- Jonah HeimBatting2-3, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Jack LeiterPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 6Jung singled to center, Burger scored, Jung to second.1–4
- 6Burger doubled to left, Pederson scored.1–3
- 5Heim homered to right center (417 feet).1–2
- 4Abreu singled to center, Story scored, K. Campbell to third.1–1
- 3Heim homered to right (360 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 51%
- ML BOS -115 / TEX -105
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.4 pts
- BOS: Elo 50.7%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- BOS -104
- TEX +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 4.3 – 4.2 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −20 | BOS: Tanner Houck: team allows 0.12 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TEX: Jack Leiter: team allows 1.00 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +5 Elo | BOS 50.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 51.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 50.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BOS | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.218th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.620th of 30 |
| 18th of 300.0 | Margin | −0.321st of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 7th of 3043–38 | Road vs home | 44–3711th of 30 |
| 14th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149624th of 30 |
| 18th of 301497 | Elo rating | 149222nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024) |  BOS |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 74–87 | 69–93 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 29–56 | 32–61 |
| Underdog | 45–31 | 37–31 |
| Overs–unders | 81–78–2 | 79–82–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 8–5 TEX in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 13.