Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Josh LoweBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Taj BradleyPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Red Sox- Vaughn GrissomBatting3-4
- Nick PivettaPitching6.2 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Sogard hit sacrifice fly to right, Grissom scored.2–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 7Morel walked, J. Lowe scored, Caballero to second, Palacios to third.2–0
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball 42–0
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging2–0
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 32–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 22–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 7J. Lowe doubled to center, Aranda scored, DeLuca thrown out at home.1–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 52%
- ML TB +100 / BOS -120
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.2 pts
- BOS: Elo 53.3%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- BOS -109
- TB +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.7 – 3.8 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | +4 | TB: Taj Bradley: team allows 0.44 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BOS: Nick Pivetta: team allows 0.22 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +23 Elo | BOS 53.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 55.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 55.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TB | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.7 | Runs scored | 4.79th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.623rd of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.4 | Margin | +0.117th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 20th of 3036–42 | Road vs home | 37–4125th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 75–83 | 73–85 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 25–48 | 28–54 |
| Underdog | 50–35 | 45–31 |
| Overs–unders | 70–88 | 80–76–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–9 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 16–7 BOS in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 23.