Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Wilyer AbreuBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Tanner HouckPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 0 K
Blue Jays- Spencer HorwitzBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Chris BassittPitching4.1 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Horwitz singled to center, Lukes scored.4–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 8Rafaela grounded into fielder's choice to third, Wong scored, Grissom out at second.4–0
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 14–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 4Rafaela grounded out to pitcher, Sogard scored.3–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–0
- 3Abreu doubled to right, Casas scored, O'Neill to third.2–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Grissom hit sacrifice fly to left, Abreu scored.1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 51%
- ML BOS -105 / TOR -115
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.1 pts
- TOR: Elo 51.2%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- TOR -104
- BOS +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 4.2 – 4.3 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | −20 | BOS: Tanner Houck: team allows 0.34 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TOR: Chris Bassitt: team allows 1.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +8 Elo | TOR 51.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 50.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 50.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BOS | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.220th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.520th of 30 |
| 18th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.320th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 10th of 3041–37 | Road vs home | 38–3721st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 71–84 | 79–76 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 28–54 | 28–42 |
| Underdog | 43–30 | 51–34 |
| Overs–unders | 79–74–2 | 81–73–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 13–10 TOR in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 23.