Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Vaughn GrissomBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Brayan BelloPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Blue Jays- Vladimir Guerrero Jr.Batting1-4, 2 RBI
- Bowden FrancisPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 10Kirk walked, Jimenez scored, Berroa to second, Lukes to third.6–5
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball 46–5
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball 36–5
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 26–5
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 16–5
- 10Jimenez doubled to left, Schneider scored.6–4
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–4
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking6–4
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 16–4
- 10Grissom singled to left, Story scored.6–3
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–3
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–3
- 10Wong grounded out to shortstop, Gasper scored, Story to third.5–3
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–3
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–3
- 10Story doubled to left, Duran scored, Casas to third.4–3
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–3
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 8Yoshida grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, González scored, Casas out at second.3–3
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging3–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 13–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–3
- 7Rafaela singled to left, Abreu scored and Grissom scored, D. Jansen to second.2–3
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging2–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul2–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 22–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 5Lukes hit sacrifice fly to left, Schneider scored.0–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 3Guerrero Jr. doubled to center, Lukes scored and Loperfido scored.0–2
- 3Pitch 7 : Ball In Play0–2
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball 30–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging0–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 20–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 55%
- ML BOS +115 / TOR -135
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.9 pts
- TOR: Elo 52.3%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- TOR -124
- BOS +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 3.5 – 4.0 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | +9 | BOS: Brayan Bello: team allows 0.51 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TOR: Bowden Francis: team allows 0.46 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +16 Elo | TOR 52.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 50.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 50.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BOS | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.221st of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.520th of 30 |
| 17th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.421st of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 8th of 3042–37 | Road vs home | 38–3821st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 72–84 | 79–77 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 28–54 | 28–43 |
| Underdog | 44–30 | 51–34 |
| Overs–unders | 79–75–2 | 81–74–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 14–10 TOR in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 24.