Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Jarren DuranBatting2-4
- Richard FittsPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Blue Jays- Jonatan ClaseBatting3-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Kevin GausmanPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Clase homered to right center (380 feet), Loperfido scored.1–6
- 7Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–6
- 7Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–6
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 31–6
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 21–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 11–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–6
- 6Casas singled to right, Duran scored, Abreu to second.1–4
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking1–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 31–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 21–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–4
- 5Kirk singled to right, Heineman scored and Clase scored, Kirk out stretching at second.0–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–4
- 4Clement singled to left, Kirk scored.0–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 20–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 10–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–2
- 4Kirk doubled to center, Guerrero Jr. scored.0–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 52%
- ML BOS +100 / TOR -120
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.0 pts
- TOR: Elo 54.1%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- TOR -109
- BOS +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 3.7 – 3.8 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +12 | BOS: Richard Fitts: team allows 0.07 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · TOR: Kevin Gausman: team allows 0.62 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +29 Elo | TOR 54.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 53.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 53.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BOS | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.221st of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.520th of 30 |
| 17th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.421st of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 7th of 3043–37 | Road vs home | 38–3921st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 73–84 | 79–78 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 28–54 | 28–44 |
| Underdog | 45–30 | 51–34 |
| Overs–unders | 80–75–2 | 82–74–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 15–10 TOR in their last 25 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 25.