Texas Rangers at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Nathaniel LoweBatting3-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Andrew HeaneyPitching4.0 IP, 7 ER, 3 K
Angels- Gustavo CamperoBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Griffin CanningPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Ornelas singled to right, Duffy scored, Langford scored and Lowe scored on throwing error by right fielder Campero, Ornelas to second.9–8
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play9–8
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 19–8
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul9–8
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking9–8
- 9Lowe walked, Semien scored, Duffy to second, Langford to third.6–8
- 9Pitch 11 : Ball 46–8
- 9Pitch 10 : Ball 36–8
- 9Pitch 9 : Strike 2 Foul6–8
- 9Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul6–8
- 9Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul6–8
- 9Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul6–8
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 26–8
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul6–8
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 16–8
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging6–8
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–8
- 8Heim tripled to right, Lowe scored.5–8
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–8
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 15–8
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–8
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging5–8
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–8
- 8Lowe doubled to center, Duffy scored.4–8
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–8
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 24–8
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–8
- 6Wagaman grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Kavadas scored, Ward safe at second on fielding error by shortstop Smith, Stefanic to third.3–8
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–8
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 13–8
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–8
- 6Langford homered to left center (415 feet).3–7
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–7
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 33–7
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 23–7
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–7
- 4Kelly grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, García scored, Taveras out at second, Lowe to third.2–7
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–7
- 3Kavadas homered to center (408 feet).1–7
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 57%
- ML TEX -145 / LAA +120
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.8 pts
- TEX: Elo 54.8%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- TEX -130
- LAA +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.5 – 4.0 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1434 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +1 | TEX: Andrew Heaney: team allows 0.13 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAA: Griffin Canning: team allows 0.04 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +33 Elo | TEX 54.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 60.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 59.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TEX | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 3.928th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.926th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.4 | Margin | −1.027th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 25th of 3032–47 | Road vs home | 32–4728th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 68–92 | 77–82 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 31–60 | 7–28 |
| Underdog | 37–31 | 70–54 |
| Overs–unders | 78–81–1 | 75–84 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 14–10 LAA in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 24.