Texas Rangers at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Marcus SemienBatting3-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jacob deGromPitching4.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Angels- Jack LopezBatting2-3
- Reid DetmersPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 12 K
Scoring summary
- 9Semien homered to center (403 feet).5–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul5–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 15–2
- 5Kavadas doubled to right, Campero scored.4–2
- 5Pitch 7 : Ball In Play4–2
- 5Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 34–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking4–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 24–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 14–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–2
- 4Kelly homered to left center (412 feet).4–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–1
- 1Wagaman singled to right, Lopez scored.3–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 23–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking3–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 13–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 1García homered to center (402 feet).3–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking3–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul3–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 23–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 1Langford homered to left (376 feet), Semien scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 59%
- ML TEX -160 / LAA +135
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.0 pts
- TEX: Elo 58.1%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- TEX -145
- LAA +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.2 – 3.3 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1487 | 1435 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | −14 | TEX: Jacob deGrom: team allows 0.48 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · LAA: Reid Detmers: team allows 0.71 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +57 Elo | TEX 58.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 59.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 59.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TEX | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.2 | Runs scored | 3.927th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.926th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.4 | Margin | −0.927th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 25th of 3031–47 | Road vs home | 32–4628th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 67–92 | 77–81 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 30–60 | 7–28 |
| Underdog | 37–31 | 70–53 |
| Overs–unders | 78–80–1 | 75–83 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 13–10 LAA in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 23.