Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Junior CamineroBatting3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Shane BazPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Red Sox- Triston CasasBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kutter CrawfordPitching4.1 IP, 6 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Morel reached on infield single to second, B. Lowe scored, Caminero to third.7–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 17–2
- 6Duran scored on Baz wild pitch, Story to second on wild pitch by Baz.6–2
- 6Duran scored on Baz wild pitch, Story to second on wild pitch by Baz.6–2
- 5J. Lowe singled to right, Caminero scored and Aranda scored.6–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging6–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 26–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 16–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–1
- 5Aranda singled to left, B. Lowe scored, Caminero to second.4–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–1
- 5Caminero reached on infield single to pitcher, Díaz scored, B. Lowe to second.3–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 3Caminero homered to left (371 feet), Díaz scored.2–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 1Casas homered to left center (370 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 8 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 7 : Ball 30–1
- 1Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 20–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 10–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 52%
- ML TB +100 / BOS -120
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.7 pts
- BOS: Elo 49.4%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- BOS -109
- TB +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.7 – 3.8 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | 0 | TB: Shane Baz: team allows 0.58 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · BOS: Kutter Crawford: team allows 0.02 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +4 Elo | TB 50.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 54.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 53.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TB | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.7 | Runs scored | 4.79th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.623rd of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.4 | Margin | 0.017th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 19th of 3037–42 | Road vs home | 37–4227th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 76–83 | 73–86 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 25–48 | 28–55 |
| Underdog | 51–35 | 45–31 |
| Overs–unders | 70–89 | 80–77–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–9 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 17–7 BOS in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 24.