Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Dylan CarlsonBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Ryan PepiotPitching4.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Red Sox- Vaughn GrissomBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Quinn PriesterPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 5Wong grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Grissom scored on error, Casas safe at second on throwing error by shortstop Caballero.1–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 21–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 4Carlson singled to right, J. Lowe scored on error, Carlson safe at second on throwing error by shortstop Sogard.1–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 11–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 3Casas grounded into fielder's choice to first, Grissom scored.0–2
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 30–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 20–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–2
- 3Grissom doubled to center, Duran scored on error, Grissom safe at third on throwing error by shortstop Caballero.0–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 10–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 50%
- ML TB -110 / BOS -110
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.3 pts
- BOS: Elo 47.7%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- BOS -100
- TB -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.8 – 3.8 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | −10 | TB: Ryan Pepiot: team allows 0.44 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · BOS: Quinn Priester: team allows 0.50 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +16 Elo | TB 52.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 52.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 52.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TB | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.7 | Runs scored | 4.69th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.623rd of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.4 | Margin | 0.017th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 17th of 3038–42 | Road vs home | 37–4327th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 77–83 | 73–87 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 25–48 | 28–56 |
| Underdog | 52–35 | 45–31 |
| Overs–unders | 71–89 | 81–77–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–9 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 18–7 BOS in their last 25 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 25.