Texas Rangers at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Dustin HarrisBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Nathan EovaldiPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Angels- Jack LopezBatting1-4
- Jack KochanowiczPitching7.0 IP, 3 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 9Smith doubled to right, Semien scored and Duran scored.8–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–0
- 9Harris homered to right center (371 feet).6–0
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–0
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 16–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–0
- 8Lowe homered to right (365 feet), Langford scored.5–0
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–0
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 25–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking5–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 15–0
- 7Harris doubled to right, Jankowski scored and Taveras scored.3–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–0
- 4Heim singled to left, Lowe scored.1–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 57%
- ML TEX -150 / LAA +125
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.5 pts
- TEX: Elo 52.9%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- TEX -135
- LAA +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.6 – 3.9 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1433 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | +13 | TEX: Nathan Eovaldi: team allows 0.25 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAA: Jack Kochanowicz: team allows 0.66 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +20 Elo | TEX 52.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 63.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 62.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TEX | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 3.927th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.927th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.4 | Margin | −1.027th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 24th of 3033–47 | Road vs home | 32–4828th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 68–93 | 78–82 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 31–61 | 7–28 |
| Underdog | 37–31 | 71–54 |
| Overs–unders | 79–81–1 | 76–84 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 15–10 LAA in their last 25 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 25.