San Francisco Giants at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Heliot RamosBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Robbie RayPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Reds- Austin WynnsBatting1-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Nick MartinezPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Ramos singled to left, Lee scored, Chapman to third.6–3
- 8Adames hit sacrifice fly to center, Fitzgerald scored.5–3
- 6McLain homered to center (402 feet).4–3
- 6Wynns homered to left (410 feet), Lux scored.4–2
- 6Chapman homered to left (375 feet), Lee scored.4–0
- 6Lee doubled to left, Fitzgerald scored.2–0
- 5Ramos homered to left (380 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SF 54%
- ML SF -130 / CIN +110
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.5 pts
- SF: Elo 45.8%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- SF -119
- CIN +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 4.4 – 4.1 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | +10 | SF: Robbie Ray: team allows 0.27 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · CIN: Nick Martinez: team allows 0.52 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +29 Elo | CIN 54.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 51.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SF | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.316th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.314th of 30 |
| 19th of 300.0 | Margin | 0.017th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 18th of 3038–42 | Road vs home | 39–4221st of 30 |
| 4th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 15027th of 30 |
| 17th of 301498 | Elo rating | 149421st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024) |  SF |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 78–80 | 90–72 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 31–51 | 32–40 |
| Underdog | 47–29 | 58–32 |
| Overs–unders | 84–73–1 | 75–86–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 9–6 CIN in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 15.