San Francisco Giants at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Wilmer FloresBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Justin VerlanderPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Reds- Matt McLainBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Nick LodoloPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 6Encarnacion-Strand homered to right (354 feet).2–3
- 5De La Cruz singled to right, McLain scored.2–2
- 3McLain homered to left center (382 feet).2–1
- 3Lee singled to right, Ramos scored.2–0
- 2Flores homered to left (363 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 52%
- ML SF +100 / CIN -120
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.9 pts
- CIN: Elo 51.3%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- CIN -109
- SF +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 4.2 – 4.3 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −13 | −15 | SF: Justin Verlander: team allows 0.64 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CIN: Nick Lodolo: team allows 0.76 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +9 Elo | CIN 51.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 52.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SF | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.316th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.314th of 30 |
| 19th of 300.0 | Margin | 0.017th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 18th of 3038–42 | Road vs home | 39–4221st of 30 |
| 4th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 15037th of 30 |
| 17th of 301499 | Elo rating | 149321st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024) |  SF |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 78–80 | 90–72 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 31–51 | 32–40 |
| Underdog | 47–29 | 58–32 |
| Overs–unders | 84–73–1 | 75–86–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 9–5 CIN in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 14.