Texas Rangers at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Wyatt LangfordBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Nathan EovaldiPitching9.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Reds- Matt McLainBatting1-4
- Carson SpiersPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 1Langford homered to left (361 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 58%
- ML TEX -155 / CIN +130
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.3 pts
- TEX: Elo 50.0%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- TEX -140
- CIN +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.6 – 3.9 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | −22 | TEX: Nathan Eovaldi: team allows 0.05 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CIN: Carson Spiers: team allows 1.10 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN 0 Elo | CIN 50.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 50.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 50.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TEX | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 303.2 | Runs scored | 6.06th of 30 |
| 22nd of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.313th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−1.8 | Margin | +1.89th of 30 |
| 14th of 180–1 | Road vs home | 2–211th of 19 |
| 20th of 301492 | Opponent Elo | 150118th of 30 |
| 20th of 301492 | Elo rating | 149619th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024) |  TEX |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 69–93 | 90–72 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 32–61 | 32–40 |
| Underdog | 37–31 | 58–32 |
| Overs–unders | 79–82–1 | 75–86–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 2–5 CIN in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.