Texas Rangers at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Jake BurgerBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Kumar RockerPitching3.0 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Reds- Elly De La CruzBatting4-5, 2 HR, 7 RBI
- Brady SingerPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9Burger homered to right center (386 feet), Pillar scored.3–14
- 8Taveras grounded out to third, Smith scored.1–14
- 7De La Cruz homered to center (436 feet), McLain scored.0–14
- 6Fraley singled to center, Encarnacion-Strand scored, Steer to second.0–12
- 6Steer singled to left, De La Cruz scored and McLain scored, Encarnacion-Strand to second.0–11
- 6De La Cruz doubled to left, Trevino scored and Friedl scored, McLain to third.0–9
- 6McLain singled to right, Fraley scored, Friedl to second, Trevino to third.0–7
- 2De La Cruz homered to center (418 feet), Trevino scored and McLain scored.0–6
- 1Lux doubled to center, De La Cruz scored.0–3
- 1McLain homered to left center (397 feet), Friedl scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 53%
- ML TEX -125 / CIN +105
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.5 pts
- TEX: Elo 50.8%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- TEX -114
- CIN +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.4 – 4.1 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | −18 | TEX: Kumar Rocker: team allows 0.07 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · CIN: Brady Singer: team allows 0.88 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +5 Elo | TEX 50.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 53.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 53.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TEX | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 303.3 | Runs scored | 3.320th of 30 |
| 8th of 302.8 | Runs allowed | 4.722nd of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −1.320th of 30 |
| 20th of 301492 | Opponent Elo | 150118th of 30 |
| 19th of 301496 | Elo rating | 149220th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024) |  TEX |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 69–93 | 90–72 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 32–61 | 32–40 |
| Underdog | 37–31 | 58–32 |
| Overs–unders | 79–82–1 | 75–86–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 2–4 CIN in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.