Pittsburgh Pirates at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Oneil CruzBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Paul SkenesPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Rays- Jonny DeLucaBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Ryan PepiotPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Cruz hit sacrifice fly to center, Kiner-Falefa scored.4–2
- 8DeLuca singled to left, Walls scored.3–2
- 8Rodríguez singled to right, Suwinski scored.3–1
- 6B. Lowe grounded out to second, DeLuca scored.2–1
- 5Cruz homered to left center (391 feet).2–0
- 2Frazier singled to center, Triolo scored, Kiner-Falefa to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 51%
- ML PIT -115 / TB -105
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 45%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 43%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.2 pts
- PIT: Elo 42.8%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- PIT -104
- TB +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.3 – 3.2 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1472 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +14 | +9 | PIT: Paul Skenes: team allows 0.71 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · TB: Ryan Pepiot: team allows 0.44 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +50 Elo | TB 57.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 54.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 55.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PIT | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 302.5 | Runs scored | 4.612th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 1.82nd of 30 |
| 27th of 30−2.3 | Margin | +2.84th of 30 |
| 16th of 191–5 | Road vs home | 4–15th of 19 |
| 23rd of 301479 | Opponent Elo | 145129th of 30 |
| 24th of 301472 | Elo rating | 151013th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 1–5 | 3–2 |
| Last 10 | 1–5 | 3–2 |
| Favorite | 0–3 | 3–2 |
| Underdog | 1–2 | — |
| Overs–unders | 2–4 | 1–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–4 | 1–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 1–7 TB in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 8.