Pittsburgh Pirates at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Bryan ReynoldsBatting2-4
- Thomas HarringtonPitching4.0 IP, 6 ER, 2 K
Rays- Brandon LoweBatting3-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Shane BazPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 8B. Lowe singled to right, DeLuca scored.0–7
- 4B. Lowe homered to right center (388 feet), Díaz scored.0–6
- 3Misner hit sacrifice fly to right, Mangum scored, Mead to third.0–4
- 1Misner singled to center, Mangum scored on error, Misner safe at second on fielding error by center fielder Cruz.0–3
- 1Mangum doubled to left, B. Lowe scored and Díaz scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- TB 61%
- ML PIT +145 / TB -175
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.4 pts
- TB: Elo 58.5%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- TB -156
- PIT +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.8 – 4.7 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1475 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +12 | PIT: Thomas Harrington (no track record yet) · TB: Shane Baz: team allows 0.58 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +60 Elo | TB 58.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 57.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 57.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PIT | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 303.0 | Runs scored | 4.016th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 2.33rd of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−1.4 | Margin | +1.89th of 30 |
| 13th of 181–4 | Road vs home | 3–16th of 19 |
| 25th of 301472 | Opponent Elo | 144629th of 30 |
| 24th of 301475 | Elo rating | 150714th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024) |  PIT |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 79–80 | 77–84 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 23–42 | 25–48 |
| Underdog | 56–38 | 52–36 |
| Overs–unders | 79–80 | 71–90 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 1–9 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 1–6 TB in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 7.