Colorado Rockies at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Ezequiel TovarBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Kyle FreelandPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Rays- Kameron MisnerBatting1-1, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Ryan PepiotPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9Misner homered to right (351 feet).2–3
- 7Caballero singled to left, Caminero scored, Jansen to second.2–2
- 7Aranda hit sacrifice fly to right, B. Lowe scored, Caminero to third.2–1
- 4Farmer hit sacrifice fly to center, Toglia scored.2–0
- 3Tovar doubled to left, Beck scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- TB 65%
- ML COL +175 / TB -220
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.6 pts
- TB: Elo 62.9%, market 65.4%
- Fair odds
- TB -189
- COL +189 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.0 – 4.5 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1439 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | +8 | COL: Kyle Freeland: team allows 0.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TB: Ryan Pepiot: team allows 0.39 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +91 Elo | TB 62.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 58.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 58.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 65.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| COL | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 3.729th of 30 |
| 30th of 305.7 | Runs allowed | 4.18th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.5 | Margin | −0.422nd of 30 |
| 27th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 29th of 3024–57 | Road vs home | 42–3919th of 30 |
| 1st of 301509 | Opponent Elo | 149921st of 30 |
| 29th of 301439 | Elo rating | 150415th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024) |  COL |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 78–80 | 77–84 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 3–9 | 25–48 |
| Underdog | 75–70 | 52–36 |
| Overs–unders | 82–76 | 71–90 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 1–9 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 1–5 TB in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.