Pittsburgh Pirates at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Nick GonzalesBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Paul SkenesPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Marlins- Kyle StowersBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Sandy AlcantaraPitching4.2 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Stowers singled to right, Sanoja scored, Edwards to third.4–5
- 8Myers singled to center, Lopez scored.4–4
- 8Lopez singled to center, Stowers scored, Lopez to second.4–3
- 6Edwards scored, Bride to second on passed ball by Bart, Stowers to third on passed ball by Bart.4–2
- 6Edwards scored, Bride to second on passed ball by Bart, Stowers to third on passed ball by Bart.4–2
- 6N. Gonzales homered to left (374 feet), Bart scored.4–1
- 5Reynolds singled to center, Hayes scored and Kiner-Falefa scored, Pham to third.2–1
- 3Edwards grounded into fielder's choice to second, Hill scored, Fortes out at second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 57%
- ML PIT -150 / MIA +125
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.7 pts
- PIT: Elo 51.7%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- PIT -135
- MIA +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.6 – 2.9 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1479 | 1462 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +18 | +5 | PIT: Paul Skenes: team allows 0.88 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · MIA: Sandy Alcantara: team allows 0.24 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +12 Elo | PIT 51.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 58.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 57.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PIT | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 3.927th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 5.229th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.5 | Margin | −1.328th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 21st of 3037–44 | Road vs home | 30–5129th of 30 |
| 5th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 15052nd of 30 |
| 24th of 301479 | Elo rating | 146226th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024) |  PIT |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 79–80 | 76–85 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 23–42 | 2–20 |
| Underdog | 56–38 | 74–65 |
| Overs–unders | 79–80 | 89–71–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 9–5 MIA in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 14.