Miami Marlins at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Jonah BrideBatting2-3, 2 RBI
- Ryan WeathersPitching6.1 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Blue Jays- Steward BerroaBatting2-4
- Ryan YarbroughPitching3.2 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Loperfido grounded out to second, De Los Santos scored, Berroa to second.3–1
- 7Pitch 7 : Ball In Play3–1
- 7Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 33–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking3–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 23–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 6Lopez doubled to shortstop, Bride scored, Myers to third.3–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–0
- 1Bride reached on infield single to second, Burger scored and Edwards scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 22–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 52%
- ML MIA +100 / TOR -120
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.3 pts
- TOR: Elo 57.5%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- TOR -109
- MIA +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 3.7 – 3.8 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1447 | 1489 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | +2 | MIA: Ryan Weathers: team allows 0.46 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · TOR: Ryan Burr: team allows 0.09 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +52 Elo | TOR 57.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 59.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 59.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIA | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.221st of 30 |
| 29th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 4.622nd of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.3 | Margin | −0.423rd of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 26th of 3031–49 | Road vs home | 39–4121st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 75–85 | 80–80 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 2–20 | 29–46 |
| Underdog | 73–65 | 51–34 |
| Overs–unders | 89–70–1 | 84–75–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 3–2 TOR in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 5.