Miami Marlins at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Dane MyersBatting2-4, 1 HR, 5 RBI
- Xzavion CurryPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 K
Blue Jays- Nathan LukesBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Yariel RodriguezPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Myers homered to center (407 feet), J. Sánchez scored and Conine scored.8–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 28–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 18–1
- 6Pereda singled to left, Conine scored, Myers thrown out at home.5–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–1
- 6Myers doubled to right, Burger scored and J. Sánchez scored, Conine to third.4–1
- 6Pitch 7 : Ball In Play4–1
- 6Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 34–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 24–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul4–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 1Lukes homered to right (341 feet).2–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 22–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 1Conine doubled to right, J. Sánchez scored, Bride to third.2–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 1Bride singled to right, Edwards scored, J. Sánchez to third.1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 61%
- ML MIA +145 / TOR -175
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.6 pts
- TOR: Elo 59.3%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- TOR -156
- MIA +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 3.8 – 4.7 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1444 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | −5 | MIA: Xzavion Curry: team allows 0.15 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · TOR: Yariel Rodriguez: team allows 0.26 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +65 Elo | TOR 59.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 60.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 60.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIA | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.220th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 4.622nd of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.3 | Margin | −0.422nd of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 30 |
| 28th of 3030–49 | Road vs home | 39–4021st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 74–85 | 80–79 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 2–20 | 29–45 |
| Underdog | 72–65 | 51–34 |
| Overs–unders | 88–70–1 | 83–75–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 2–2 TOR in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.