Miami Marlins at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Jonah BrideBatting2-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Adam OllerPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Blue Jays- Ernie ClementBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jose BerriosPitching3.0 IP, 6 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Bride homered to left (380 feet).15–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play15–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 115–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking15–5
- 7Burger doubled to right, Norby scored, Burger out stretching at third.14–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play14–5
- 7Norby singled to center, Edwards scored.13–5
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play13–5
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 313–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking13–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 213–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 113–5
- 7Edwards tripled to right, Lopez scored and Stowers scored.12–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play12–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 112–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking12–5
- 7Conine homered to left (346 feet).10–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play10–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 110–5
- 6Guerrero Jr. hit sacrifice fly to center, Clase scored, Jimenez to third.9–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play9–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul9–5
- 4Clement homered to left (385 feet).9–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play9–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 19–4
- 4Conine singled to right, Burger scored and J. Sánchez scored, Bride to second.9–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play9–3
- 4Burger singled to center, Edwards scored.7–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul7–3
- 3Horwitz singled to right, Springer scored and Lukes scored.6–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–3
- 3Lukes doubled to right, Jimenez scored, Springer to third.6–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul6–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking6–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 16–1
- 3J. Sánchez scored on Berríos wild pitch, Lopez to second on wild pitch by Berríos.6–0
- 3J. Sánchez scored on Berríos wild pitch, Lopez to second on wild pitch by Berríos.6–0
- 2Edwards tripled to right, Lopez scored and Stowers scored.5–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 66%
- ML MIA +180 / TOR -215
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.9 pts
- TOR: Elo 62.8%, market 65.6%
- Fair odds
- TOR -191
- MIA +191 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 3.5 – 5.0 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1439 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | +11 | MIA: Adam Oller: team allows 0.12 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · TOR: Jose Berrios: team allows 0.57 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +91 Elo | TOR 62.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 64.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 64.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 65.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIA | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 4.220th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 4.520th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.4 | Margin | −0.320th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 28th of 3029–49 | Road vs home | 39–3921st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 73–85 | 80–78 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 2–20 | 29–44 |
| Underdog | 71–65 | 51–34 |
| Overs–unders | 87–70–1 | 82–75–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 1–2 TOR in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.