Pittsburgh Pirates at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Oneil CruzBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Mitch KellerPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Marlins- Otto LopezBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Connor GillispiePitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Lopez homered to center (418 feet), Mervis scored.4–3
- 5Pauley doubled to right, Hill scored.4–1
- 5Cruz homered to right (381 feet), Pham scored.4–0
- 4Frazier hit sacrifice fly to right, Bart scored.2–0
- 4McCutchen doubled to left, Cruz scored, Bart to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 57%
- ML PIT -145 / MIA +120
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.5 pts
- PIT: Elo 47.0%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- PIT -130
- MIA +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 4.5 – 4.0 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1478 | 1463 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −14 | +3 | PIT: Mitch Keller: team allows 0.72 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIA: Connor Gillispie (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +21 Elo | MIA 53.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 51.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PIT | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 3.927th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 5.229th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.5 | Margin | −1.328th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 21st of 3037–44 | Road vs home | 30–5129th of 30 |
| 5th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 15053rd of 30 |
| 24th of 301478 | Elo rating | 146326th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024) |  PIT |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 79–80 | 76–85 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 23–42 | 2–20 |
| Underdog | 56–38 | 74–65 |
| Overs–unders | 79–80 | 89–71–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 9–6 MIA in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 15.