Pittsburgh Pirates at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Andrew McCutchenBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Andrew HeaneyPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Marlins- Griffin ConineBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Max MeyerPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Hill scored on Bednar wild pitch.2–3
- 9Hill scored on Bednar wild pitch.2–3
- 7Conine homered to left center (404 feet).2–2
- 5Kiner-Falefa reached on infield single to shortstop, Rodríguez scored.2–1
- 2Fortes doubled to left, Hill scored.1–1
- 2McCutchen homered to left (393 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Marlins 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIA 52%
- ML PIT +100 / MIA -120
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.5 pts
- MIA: Elo 49.6%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- MIA -109
- PIT +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.7 – 3.8 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1478 | 1463 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | −6 | PIT: Andrew Heaney: team allows 0.05 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIA: Max Meyer: team allows 0.32 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +2 Elo | PIT 50.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 52.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PIT | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.311th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.013th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.3 | Margin | +0.314th of 30 |
| 9th of 151–2 | Road vs home | 2–15th of 15 |
| 26th of 301463 | Opponent Elo | 147824th of 30 |
| 24th of 301478 | Elo rating | 146326th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024) |  PIT |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 79–80 | 76–85 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 23–42 | 2–20 |
| Underdog | 56–38 | 74–65 |
| Overs–unders | 79–80 | 89–71–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 10–7 MIA in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 17.