Tampa Bay Rays at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Brandon LoweBatting2-4
- Zack LittellPitching7.0 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Rangers- Josh SmithBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tyler MahlePitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Smith homered to right center (394 feet).2–5
- 7Misner scored on Martin wild pitch.2–4
- 7Misner scored on Martin wild pitch.2–4
- 7Morel scored on Armstrong wild pitch, Misner to third on wild pitch by Armstrong.1–4
- 7Morel scored on Armstrong wild pitch, Misner to third on wild pitch by Armstrong.1–4
- 3Langford hit sacrifice fly to center, Semien scored.0–4
- 3Semien singled to center, Taveras scored.0–3
- 3Taveras singled to center, Higashioka scored.0–2
- 3Higashioka doubled to left, Smith scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 54%
- ML TB +110 / TEX -130
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.5 pts
- TEX: Elo 51.8%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- TEX -119
- TB +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 4.1 – 4.4 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +11 | TB: Zack Littell: team allows 0.17 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TEX: Tyler Mahle: team allows 0.54 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +12 Elo | TEX 51.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 50.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 50.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TB | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 2.628th of 30 |
| 2nd of 302.2 | Runs allowed | 3.68th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+2.0 | Margin | −1.019th of 30 |
| 30th of 301452 | Opponent Elo | 149620th of 30 |
| 15th of 301508 | Elo rating | 149520th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 3–3 | 2–5 |
| Last 10 | 3–3 | 2–5 |
| Favorite | 3–3 | 1–4 |
| Underdog | — | 1–1 |
| Overs–unders | 1–5 | 1–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–5 | 1–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 3–11 TEX in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 14.