Texas Rangers at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Wyatt LangfordBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Patrick CorbinPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 0 K
Cubs- Dansby SwansonBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Jameson TaillonPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Crow-Armstrong singled to left, Berti scored and Swanson scored, Crow-Armstrong thrown out at second.6–10
- 8Swanson singled to right, Happ scored and Tucker scored, Berti to second.6–8
- 8Jung tripled to right, Smith scored.6–6
- 7Semien grounded out to second, Taveras scored.5–6
- 7Taveras tripled to left, Jung scored.4–6
- 5Hoerner singled to left, Tucker scored and Turner scored.3–6
- 5Swanson hit sacrifice fly to center, Suzuki scored, Turner to second, Tucker to third.3–4
- 3Langford homered to left center (407 feet).3–3
- 2Suzuki singled to left, Crow-Armstrong scored and Shaw scored, Kelly to second.2–3
- 2Swanson homered to left (395 feet).2–1
- 2Heim singled to right, A. García scored and Smith scored, Jung to third.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 59%
- ML TEX +135 / CHC -160
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.5 pts
- CHC: Elo 58.6%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- CHC -145
- TEX +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 3.3 – 4.2 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1528 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −11 | −1 | TEX: Patrick Corbin: team allows 0.57 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHC: Jameson Taillon: team allows 0.03 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +60 Elo | CHC 58.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 54.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 55.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TEX | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.0 | Runs scored | 6.52nd of 30 |
| 8th of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.315th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.7 | Margin | +2.21st of 30 |
| 1st of 298–2 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 29 |
| 5th of 302–2 | Road vs home | 3–18th of 30 |
| 18th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 15164th of 30 |
| 19th of 301496 | Elo rating | 15286th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 4–7 | 8–5 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 3–5 | 5–1 |
| Underdog | 1–2 | 3–4 |
| Overs–unders | 3–8 | 10–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 3–4 CHC in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.