Texas Rangers at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Kyle HigashiokaBatting2-3
- Nathan EovaldiPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Cubs- Ian HappBatting1-5, 3 RBI
- Justin SteelePitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 6Suzuki singled to center, Tucker scored.0–7
- 6Tucker singled to right, Happ scored, Tucker to second.0–6
- 6Happ singled to left, Amaya scored and Crow-Armstrong scored.0–5
- 5Busch tripled to right, Suzuki scored.0–3
- 3Happ grounded into fielder's choice to first, Berti scored.0–2
- 2Amaya hit sacrifice fly to center, Busch scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 52%
- ML TEX +100 / CHC -120
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.3 pts
- CHC: Elo 55.5%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- CHC -109
- TEX +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 3.2 – 3.3 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1525 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | −1 | TEX: Nathan Eovaldi: team allows 0.26 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHC: Justin Steele: team allows 0.03 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +38 Elo | CHC 55.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 55.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 55.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TEX | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 303.3 | Runs scored | 6.43rd of 30 |
| 6th of 303.4 | Runs allowed | 4.717th of 30 |
| 15th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +1.85th of 30 |
| 3rd of 302–1 | Road vs home | 2–111th of 29 |
| 17th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 15193rd of 30 |
| 19th of 301499 | Elo rating | 15257th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 4–6 | 7–5 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 3–5 | 4–1 |
| Underdog | 1–1 | 3–4 |
| Overs–unders | 2–8 | 9–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 3–3 CHC in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.