Tampa Bay Rays at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Brandon LoweBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Drew RasmussenPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Rangers- Corey SeagerBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kumar RockerPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 9Heim singled to center, Smith scored.3–4
- 8Caminero hit sacrifice fly to center, DeLuca scored.3–3
- 8B. Lowe grounded out to first, Rortvedt scored, DeLuca to third.2–3
- 7Taveras singled to center, Heim scored.1–3
- 6Seager homered to right (377 feet).1–2
- 4Misner singled to center, Aranda scored.1–1
- 3Semien grounded into fielder's choice to second, Smith scored, Heim out at second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TB 51%
- ML TB -115 / TEX -105
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 44%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.6 pts
- TB: Elo 50.5%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- TB -104
- TEX +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.8 – 3.7 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | −21 | TB: Drew Rasmussen: team allows 0.30 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · TEX: Kumar Rocker: team allows 1.06 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +4 Elo | TB 50.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 57.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 56.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TB | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 3.225th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.0 | Runs allowed | 3.47th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.9 | Margin | −0.216th of 30 |
| 23rd of 300–2 | Road vs home | 5–17th of 29 |
| 30th of 301462 | Opponent Elo | 149818th of 30 |
| 16th of 301504 | Elo rating | 149819th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 3–5 | 4–5 |
| Last 10 | 3–5 | 4–5 |
| Favorite | 3–3 | 3–4 |
| Underdog | 0–2 | 1–1 |
| Overs–unders | 2–6 | 2–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–6 | 2–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 3–13 TEX in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 16.