Los Angeles Dodgers at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Andy PagesBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Justin WrobleskiPitching5.0 IP, 8 ER, 4 K
Nationals- James WoodBatting3-4, 2 HR, 5 RBI
- Brad LordPitching3.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8E. Hernández homered to left (378 feet).2–8
- 5Pages homered to left center (390 feet).1–8
- 4Wood homered to center (413 feet), Young scored.0–8
- 4Call hit sacrifice fly to right, Crews scored, Young to second.0–6
- 2Ruiz singled to center, Call scored and Young scored, Wood to third.0–5
- 2Wood walked, Crews scored, Call to second, Young to third.0–3
- 1Wood homered to center (391 feet), Call scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 63%
- ML LAD -190 / WSH +160
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.8 pts
- LAD: Elo 53.2%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- LAD -170
- WSH +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.8 – 3.7 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1563 | 1468 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −49 | +5 | LAD: Justin Wrobleski: team allows 2.47 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · WSH: Brad Lord (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +23 Elo | LAD 53.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 60.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 59.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAD | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.016th of 30 |
| 6th of 303.4 | Runs allowed | 5.021st of 30 |
| 6th of 30+1.7 | Margin | −1.020th of 30 |
| 20th of 301–3 | Road vs home | 4–317th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301520 | Opponent Elo | 15222nd of 30 |
| 1st of 301563 | Elo rating | 146825th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 7–5 | 4–6 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 6–5 | — |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 4–6 |
| Overs–unders | 7–5 | 5–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 8–5 WSH in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 13.