Atlanta Braves at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Ozzie AlbiesBatting2-5, 1 RBI
- Bryce ElderPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Dodgers- Shohei OhtaniBatting3-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Blake SnellPitching4.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Ohtani homered to center (399 feet).5–6
- 8Muncy doubled to center, Conforto scored and Smith scored.5–5
- 4Conforto homered to center (419 feet).5–3
- 2Edman homered to center (415 feet), Conforto scored.5–2
- 2Olson doubled to left, White scored and Albies scored, Ozuna to third.5–0
- 2Albies doubled to center, Fairchild scored, White to third.3–0
- 1Allen doubled to left, Olson scored, De La Cruz thrown out at home.2–0
- 1Ozuna scored on error, De La Cruz safe at first on throwing error by third baseman Muncy, Olson safe at third on error.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 67%
- ML ATL +190 / LAD -240
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.0 pts
- LAD: Elo 64.1%, market 67.2%
- Fair odds
- LAD -205
- ATL +205 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 3.5 – 5.0 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1522 | 1565 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −24 | +16 | ATL: Bryce Elder: team allows 1.20 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAD: Blake Snell: team allows 0.80 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +101 Elo | LAD 64.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 63.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 63.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 67.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATL | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 301.5 | Runs scored | 5.66th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 2.63rd of 30 |
| 28th of 30−2.8 | Margin | +3.03rd of 30 |
| 17th of 190–6 | Road vs home | 5–01st of 19 |
| 1st of 301554 | Opponent Elo | 151610th of 30 |
| 8th of 301522 | Elo rating | 15651st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 1–5 | 6–1 |
| Last 10 | 1–5 | 6–1 |
| Favorite | 0–2 | 6–1 |
| Underdog | 1–3 | — |
| Overs–unders | 1–5 | 4–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–5 | 4–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 6–10 LAD in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 16.