Detroit Tigers at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Zach McKinstryBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Reese OlsonPitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Dodgers- Freddie FreemanBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Luis GarciaPitching2.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 7Freeman doubled to right, Ohtani scored.3–7
- 7Edman homered to center (397 feet).3–6
- 7McKinstry reached on infield single to first, Rogers scored.3–5
- 6Smith homered to left (396 feet).2–5
- 5T. Hernández doubled to left, Conforto scored and Ohtani scored.2–4
- 2Conforto doubled to second, Pages scored.2–2
- 1Freeman homered to right center (418 feet).2–1
- 1Sweeney walked, Torkelson scored, Margot to second, Keith to third.2–0
- 1Margot reached on infield single to pitcher, McKinstry scored, Keith to second, Torkelson to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 64%
- ML DET +165 / LAD -200
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.2 pts
- LAD: Elo 60.7%, market 63.9%
- Fair odds
- LAD -177
- DET +177 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.1 – 4.4 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1560 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | −3 | DET: Reese Olson: team allows 0.34 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAD: Roki Sasaki: team allows 0.13 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +75 Elo | LAD 60.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 60.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 60.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 63.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| DET | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 5.22nd of 30 |
| 5th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.213th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +1.01st of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 7th of 3043–38 | Road vs home | 52–282nd of 30 |
| 28th of 301494 | Opponent Elo | 149920th of 30 |
| 14th of 301506 | Elo rating | 15601st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024) |  DET |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 92–76 | 93–84 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 29–41 | 79–70 |
| Underdog | 63–35 | 14–14 |
| Overs–unders | 83–85 | 103–73–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 3–5 LAD in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.