Atlanta Braves at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Matt OlsonBatting1-4
- Chris SalePitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Dodgers- Mookie BettsBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Dustin MayPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 6Smith singled to center, Edman scored.1–3
- 6Betts homered to left (369 feet), Ohtani scored.1–2
- 2De La Cruz grounded into fielder's choice to second, Ozuna scored on throwing error by shortstop Betts, Baldwin out at second, De La Cruz to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 53%
- ML ATL +105 / LAD -125
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.7 pts
- LAD: Elo 58.9%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- LAD -114
- ATL +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 3.6 – 3.9 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1523 | 1564 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | +15 | ATL: Chris Sale: team allows 0.56 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAD: Dustin May: team allows 0.77 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +63 Elo | LAD 58.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 50.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 51.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATL | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 301.6 | Runs scored | 6.06th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 2.86th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−3.0 | Margin | +3.23rd of 30 |
| 17th of 190–5 | Road vs home | 4–01st of 19 |
| 1st of 301550 | Opponent Elo | 151513th of 30 |
| 8th of 301523 | Elo rating | 15641st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 1–4 | 5–1 |
| Last 10 | 1–4 | 5–1 |
| Favorite | 0–2 | 5–1 |
| Underdog | 1–2 | — |
| Overs–unders | 1–4 | 4–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–4 | 4–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 6–9 LAD in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 15.