Atlanta Braves at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Michael Harris IIBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Grant HolmesPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Dodgers- Teoscar HernandezBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Tyler GlasnowPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Harris II homered to center (424 feet).1–6
- 6E. Hernández homered to left (412 feet).0–6
- 5Smith singled to center, T. Hernández scored.0–5
- 3Edman hit sacrifice fly to center, T. Hernández scored, Conforto to third.0–4
- 3Conforto doubled to center, Betts scored, T. Hernández to third.0–3
- 1T. Hernández homered to center (436 feet), Ohtani scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 65%
- ML ATL +175 / LAD -220
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.3 pts
- LAD: Elo 58.1%, market 65.4%
- Fair odds
- LAD -189
- ATL +189 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 3.0 – 4.5 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1525 | 1561 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | −2 | ATL: Grant Holmes: team allows 0.25 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · LAD: Tyler Glasnow: team allows 0.10 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +57 Elo | LAD 58.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 58.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 58.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 65.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATL | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 301.8 | Runs scored | 6.06th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 3.28th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−2.5 | Margin | +2.85th of 30 |
| 14th of 180–4 | Road vs home | 3–01st of 19 |
| 2nd of 301544 | Opponent Elo | 151115th of 30 |
| 6th of 301525 | Elo rating | 15611st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024) |  ATL |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 78–85 | 93–84 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 56–72 | 79–70 |
| Underdog | 22–13 | 14–14 |
| Overs–unders | 60–100–3 | 103–73–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 6–8 LAD in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 14.