Arizona Diamondbacks at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Alek ThomasBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Eduardo RodriguezPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 12 K
Nationals- Alex CallBatting2-2, 2 RBI
- Mitchell ParkerPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Thomas reached on infield single to first, Hampson scored.3–4
- 7Tawa grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Moreno scored, Thomas out at second.2–4
- 6Grichuk singled to center, Tawa scored, Carroll to third.1–4
- 4Call singled to right, Bell scored.0–4
- 1Call singled to right, Wood scored, Call thrown out at second.0–3
- 1Wood doubled to center, Bell scored and Rosario scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 55%
- ML ARI -135 / WSH +115
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.4 pts
- ARI: Elo 57.6%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- ARI -124
- WSH +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 5.0 – 4.5 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1530 | 1463 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | −7 | ARI: Eduardo Rodriguez: team allows 0.15 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · WSH: Mitchell Parker: team allows 0.36 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +53 Elo | ARI 57.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 56.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 56.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ARI | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 306.4 | Runs scored | 3.621st of 30 |
| 23rd of 305.3 | Runs allowed | 5.627th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+1.1 | Margin | −2.026th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303–1 | Road vs home | 1–325th of 29 |
| 2nd of 301523 | Opponent Elo | 15158th of 30 |
| 5th of 301530 | Elo rating | 146325th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 5–3 | 1–6 |
| Last 10 | 5–3 | 1–6 |
| Favorite | 4–2 | — |
| Underdog | 1–1 | 1–6 |
| Overs–unders | 6–2 | 3–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–2 | 3–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 11–2 WSH in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 13.