Washington Nationals at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- CJ AbramsBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Trevor WilliamsPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Blue Jays- Bo BichetteBatting2-5, 2 RBI
- Jose BerriosPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Bichette singled to right, Springer scored and Wagner scored.3–5
- 7Abrams doubled to right, Call scored.3–3
- 6Ruiz singled to right, Young scored and Abrams scored.2–3
- 2Roden reached on infield single to shortstop, Springer scored, Clement to second.0–3
- 2Clement grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Kirk scored, Wagner out at second, Springer to third.0–2
- 2Springer singled to left, Giménez scored, Kirk to second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 60%
- ML WSH +140 / TOR -165
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.5 pts
- TOR: Elo 51.4%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- TOR -149
- WSH +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.8 – 4.7 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1467 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +19 | −13 | WSH: Trevor Williams: team allows 0.95 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TOR: Jose Berrios: team allows 0.67 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +10 Elo | TOR 51.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 59.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 57.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| WSH | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.614th of 30 |
| 27th of 306.0 | Runs allowed | 5.222nd of 30 |
| 26th of 30−2.0 | Margin | −0.617th of 30 |
| 16th of 190–1 | Road vs home | 3–210th of 19 |
| 7th of 301520 | Opponent Elo | 151115th of 30 |
| 25th of 301467 | Elo rating | 149122nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024) |  WSH |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 87–75 | 80–81 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 13–20 | 29–47 |
| Underdog | 74–55 | 51–34 |
| Overs–unders | 78–83–1 | 84–76–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 3–4 TOR in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.