Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Jackson HollidayBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Charlie MortonPitching3.1 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Blue Jays- Bo BichetteBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Kevin GausmanPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Clement doubled to left, Giménez scored and Santander scored.2–8
- 6Bichette singled to center, Lukes scored.2–6
- 4Santander singled to right, Bichette scored on throwing error by shortstop Mateo, Santander to third.2–5
- 4Guerrero Jr. hit sacrifice fly to center, Lukes scored.2–4
- 4Wagner scored on Suárez wild pitch, Lukes to second on wild pitch by Suárez.2–3
- 4Wagner scored on Suárez wild pitch, Lukes to second on wild pitch by Suárez.2–3
- 4Roden hit sacrifice fly to right, Springer scored, Wagner to third.2–2
- 4Lukes walked, Kirk scored, Wagner to second, Springer to third.2–1
- 4O'Neill hit sacrifice fly to left, Rutschman scored.2–0
- 3Holliday homered to center (425 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 53%
- ML BAL +105 / TOR -125
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.8 pts
- TOR: Elo 49.4%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- TOR -114
- BAL +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.1 – 4.4 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1523 | 1487 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | +13 | BAL: Charlie Morton: team allows 0.02 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TOR: Kevin Gausman: team allows 0.67 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +4 Elo | BAL 50.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 51.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 51.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BAL | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.123rd of 30 |
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.622nd of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −0.423rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3047–34 | Road vs home | 39–4221st of 30 |
| 23rd of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 150111th of 30 |
| 10th of 301523 | Elo rating | 148723rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024) |  BAL |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 85–77 | 80–81 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 54–62 | 29–47 |
| Underdog | 31–15 | 51–34 |
| Overs–unders | 90–70–2 | 84–76–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 18–9 TOR in their last 27 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 27.