Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Cedric MullinsBatting3-5, 2 HR, 5 RBI
- Zach EflinPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Blue Jays- Andres GimenezBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jose BerriosPitching5.0 IP, 6 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Westburg homered to center (406 feet).12–2
- 8Rutschman homered to right (415 feet), Holliday scored.11–2
- 7Mullins homered to right center (388 feet), O'Neill scored and Mountcastle scored.9–2
- 4Giménez homered to right center (366 feet), Guerrero Jr. scored.6–2
- 4Mullins homered to right center (383 feet).6–0
- 3O'Neill homered to right (376 feet), Cowser scored and Rutschman scored.5–0
- 2Mullins reached on infield single to first, O'Neill scored, Mountcastle to third.2–0
- 1Rutschman homered to right center (436 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 51%
- ML BAL -105 / TOR -115
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 47%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.8 pts
- TOR: Elo 46.3%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- TOR -104
- BAL +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.2 – 4.3 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1520 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | −4 | BAL: Zach Eflin: team allows 0.50 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TOR: Jose Berrios: team allows 0.22 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +26 Elo | BAL 53.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 53.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 53.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BAL | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.123rd of 30 |
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.622nd of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −0.423rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3047–34 | Road vs home | 39–4221st of 30 |
| 22nd of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 150111th of 30 |
| 11th of 301520 | Elo rating | 149123rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024) |  BAL |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 85–77 | 80–81 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 54–62 | 29–47 |
| Underdog | 31–15 | 51–34 |
| Overs–unders | 90–70–2 | 84–76–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 17–9 TOR in their last 26 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 26.