Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Edmundo SosaBatting2-4
- Aaron NolaPitching5.1 IP, 5 ER, 8 K
Nationals- Nathaniel LoweBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Mitchell ParkerPitching6.1 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Marchán grounded into fielder's choice to second, Sosa scored, Clemens out at second, Marsh to third.1–5
- 6Lowe homered to center (421 feet), Ruiz scored.0–5
- 4Bell homered to center (400 feet), Ruiz scored and Lowe scored.0–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 55%
- ML PHI -135 / WSH +115
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.4 pts
- PHI: Elo 57.6%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- PHI -124
- WSH +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.5 – 4.0 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1531 | 1466 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | −15 | PHI: Aaron Nola: team allows 0.43 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · WSH: Mitchell Parker: team allows 0.77 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +54 Elo | PHI 57.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 58.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 58.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PHI | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.125th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.724th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+0.7 | Margin | −0.625th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 14th of 3040–40 | Road vs home | 38–4324th of 30 |
| 19th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15052nd of 30 |
| 4th of 301531 | Elo rating | 146625th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024) |  PHI |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 79–87 | 87–75 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 58–68 | 13–20 |
| Underdog | 21–19 | 74–55 |
| Overs–unders | 84–81–1 | 78–83–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 9–1 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 18–10 WSH in their last 28 meetings; the forecast called 17 of 28.