Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Brandon MarshBatting3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Jesus LuzardoPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 11 K
Nationals- Nathaniel LoweBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Jake IrvinPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Lowe singled to left, Bell scored.11–6
- 8Lowe homered to center (401 feet), Rosario scored.11–5
- 8Rojas reached on infield single to third, Harper scored, Kepler to second.11–3
- 7Marsh homered to right (395 feet), Castellanos scored and Stott scored.10–3
- 6Rosario homered to left (373 feet).7–3
- 6Schwarber homered to right center (385 feet), Marsh scored and Sosa scored.7–2
- 6Stott scored on Sims wild pitch, Sosa to second on wild pitch by Sims, Marsh to third on wild pitch by Sims.4–2
- 6Stott scored on Sims wild pitch, Sosa to second on wild pitch by Sims, Marsh to third on wild pitch by Sims.4–2
- 6Sosa walked, Castellanos scored, Marsh to second, Stott to third.3–2
- 4Stott homered to right (349 feet), Kepler scored.2–2
- 2Ruiz homered to left center (414 feet), Rosario scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 58%
- ML PHI -155 / WSH +130
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.4 pts
- PHI: Elo 54.9%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- PHI -140
- WSH +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.6 – 3.9 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1529 | 1469 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | +3 | PHI: Jesus Luzardo: team allows 0.23 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · WSH: Jake Irvin: team allows 0.15 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +34 Elo | PHI 54.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 54.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 54.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PHI | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.125th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.724th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+0.7 | Margin | −0.625th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 14th of 3040–40 | Road vs home | 38–4324th of 30 |
| 18th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15053rd of 30 |
| 5th of 301529 | Elo rating | 146925th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024) |  PHI |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 79–87 | 87–75 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 58–68 | 13–20 |
| Underdog | 21–19 | 74–55 |
| Overs–unders | 84–81–1 | 78–83–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 9–1 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 17–10 WSH in their last 27 meetings; the forecast called 16 of 27.