Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Ryan O'HearnBatting2-2
- Tomoyuki SuganoPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
Blue Jays- Tyler HeinemanBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Chris BassittPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 7Heineman homered to left (386 feet).1–3
- 1Springer singled to center, Bichette scored and Giménez scored.1–2
- 1O'Hearn scored on Bassitt wild pitch, O'Neill to second on wild pitch by Bassitt.1–0
- 1O'Hearn scored on Bassitt wild pitch, O'Neill to second on wild pitch by Bassitt.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 55%
- ML BAL +115 / TOR -135
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 45%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.5 pts
- TOR: Elo 44.7%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- TOR -124
- BAL +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.0 – 4.5 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1522 | 1488 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | −20 | BAL: Tomoyuki Sugano (no track record yet) · TOR: Chris Bassitt: team allows 1.00 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +37 Elo | BAL 55.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 50.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 50.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BAL | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 307.7 | Runs scored | 5.06th of 30 |
| 22nd of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 7.729th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+2.7 | Margin | −2.726th of 30 |
| 1st of 152–1 | Road vs home | 1–212th of 15 |
| 23rd of 301488 | Opponent Elo | 152210th of 30 |
| 10th of 301522 | Elo rating | 148823rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024) |  BAL |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 85–77 | 80–81 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 54–62 | 29–47 |
| Underdog | 31–15 | 51–34 |
| Overs–unders | 90–70–2 | 84–76–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 19–10 TOR in their last 29 meetings; the forecast called 16 of 29.