Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Jordan WestburgBatting4-5, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Dean KremerPitching5.1 IP, 5 ER, 6 K
Blue Jays- Andres GimenezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Max ScherzerPitching3.0 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 7Westburg homered to center (402 feet).9–5
- 5Guerrero Jr. grounded out to shortstop, Lukes scored.8–5
- 5Kjerstad hit sacrifice fly to center, Westburg scored.8–4
- 5Mullins singled to right, Rutschman scored, Westburg to third.7–4
- 4Urías doubled to right, Holliday scored, Mullins scored and Kjerstad scored.6–4
- 4Sánchez hit sacrifice fly to right, O'Hearn scored, Mullins to third.3–4
- 3Giménez homered to center (407 feet), Bichette scored.2–4
- 1Kirk hit sacrifice fly to right, Guerrero Jr. scored, Santander to third.2–2
- 1Santander singled to right, Bichette scored, Guerrero Jr. to second.2–1
- 1Westburg homered to left center (434 feet).2–0
- 1Cowser homered to center (417 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 53%
- ML BAL +105 / TOR -125
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.5 pts
- TOR: Elo 48.7%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- TOR -114
- BAL +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.1 – 4.4 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1520 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | 0 | BAL: Dean Kremer: team allows 0.18 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TOR: Max Scherzer: team allows 0.02 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +9 Elo | BAL 51.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 52.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 51.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BAL | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.123rd of 30 |
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.622nd of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −0.423rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3047–34 | Road vs home | 39–4221st of 30 |
| 22nd of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 150111th of 30 |
| 11th of 301520 | Elo rating | 149023rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024) |  BAL |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 85–77 | 80–81 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 54–62 | 29–47 |
| Underdog | 31–15 | 51–34 |
| Overs–unders | 90–70–2 | 84–76–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 18–10 TOR in their last 28 meetings; the forecast called 16 of 28.