Washington Nationals at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- James WoodBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Michael SorokaPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Blue Jays- Andres GimenezBatting2-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Bowden FrancisPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Springer singled to left, Giménez scored, Kirk to second.2–5
- 6Wood homered to left center (388 feet).2–4
- 6Abrams homered to right (386 feet).1–4
- 4Lukes grounded into fielder's choice to third, Kirk scored, Wagner out at second.0–4
- 4Kirk doubled to right, Giménez scored.0–3
- 3Guerrero Jr. doubled to right, Roden scored.0–2
- 2Giménez homered to right (381 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 62%
- ML WSH +150 / TOR -180
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.9 pts
- TOR: Elo 58.8%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- TOR -161
- WSH +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.7 – 4.8 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1469 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −20 | +4 | WSH: Michael Soroka: team allows 0.98 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · TOR: Bowden Francis: team allows 0.18 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +62 Elo | TOR 58.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 60.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 60.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| WSH | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.513th of 30 |
| 27th of 306.3 | Runs allowed | 6.025th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−1.7 | Margin | −1.520th of 30 |
| 4th of 301530 | Opponent Elo | 15228th of 30 |
| 25th of 301469 | Elo rating | 149022nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024) |  WSH |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 87–75 | 80–81 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 13–20 | 29–47 |
| Underdog | 74–55 | 51–34 |
| Overs–unders | 78–83–1 | 84–76–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 3–3 TOR in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.