Arizona Diamondbacks at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Geraldo PerdomoBatting1-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Merrill KellyPitching3.2 IP, 9 ER, 2 K
Yankees- Aaron JudgeBatting3-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Carlos CarrascoPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Perdomo homered to right (345 feet), Hampson scored, Herrera scored and Carroll scored.7–9
- 4Chisholm Jr. homered to right (387 feet), Judge scored.3–9
- 4Judge singled to center, Rice scored.3–7
- 4Thomas grounded out to second, Naylor scored, Gurriel Jr. to third.3–6
- 4Gurriel Jr. doubled to left, Smith scored, Naylor to third.2–6
- 3Grisham homered to right (354 feet), Volpe scored.1–6
- 2Thomas grounded out to second, Naylor scored, Suárez to third.1–4
- 1Grisham doubled to left, Domínguez scored.0–4
- 1Judge homered to right center (394 feet), Rice scored and Bellinger scored.0–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 55%
- ML ARI +115 / NYY -135
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.5 pts
- NYY: Elo 49.7%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- NYY -124
- ARI +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.5 – 5.0 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1530 | 1533 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | −11 | ARI: Merrill Kelly: team allows 0.60 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYY: Carlos Carrasco: team allows 0.54 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +2 Elo | ARI 50.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 51.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 51.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ARI | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 306.3 | Runs scored | 8.81st of 30 |
| 20th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 5.023rd of 30 |
| 9th of 30+1.5 | Margin | +3.81st of 30 |
| 1st of 202–0 | Road vs home | 3–29th of 20 |
| 4th of 301526 | Opponent Elo | 15263rd of 30 |
| 5th of 301530 | Elo rating | 15333rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 4–2 | 3–2 |
| Last 10 | 4–2 | 3–2 |
| Favorite | 3–2 | 3–1 |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 0–1 |
| Overs–unders | 4–2 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–2 | 3–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 4–4 NYY in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.