Milwaukee Brewers at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Vinny CapraBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Freddy PeraltaPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Yankees- Austin WellsBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Carlos RodonPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Turang hit sacrifice fly to center, Ortiz scored, Collins to third.2–4
- 7Bellinger hit sacrifice fly to right, Cabrera scored.1–4
- 7Judge doubled to left, Rice scored, Cabrera to third.1–3
- 3Capra homered to left (370 feet).1–2
- 2Volpe homered to right center (373 feet).0–2
- 1Wells homered to right center (348 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 57%
- ML MIL +125 / NYY -150
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.3 pts
- NYY: Elo 52.1%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- NYY -135
- MIL +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 3.4 – 4.1 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1532 | 1528 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +6 | MIL: Freddy Peralta: team allows 0.25 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYY: Carlos Rodon: team allows 0.28 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +15 Elo | NYY 52.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 57.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 56.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIL | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 5.03rd of 30 |
| 4th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.19th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+0.8 | Margin | +0.92nd of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 4th of 3046–35 | Road vs home | 44–3711th of 30 |
| 18th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149822nd of 30 |
| 4th of 301532 | Elo rating | 15286th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024) |  MIL |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 86–77 | 89–83 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 40–54 | 60–75 |
| Underdog | 46–23 | 29–8 |
| Overs–unders | 88–75 | 95–76–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 3–3 NYY in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.