Arizona Diamondbacks at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Eugenio SuarezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Corbin BurnesPitching4.1 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Yankees- Jasson DominguezBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Will WarrenPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Rice homered to right (403 feet).7–5
- 8Suárez homered to left center (376 feet), Carroll scored, Marte scored and Smith scored.7–4
- 8Perdomo singled to right, Grichuk scored.3–4
- 4Wells scored on error and Domínguez scored on error, Cabrera safe at first on throwing error by first baseman Naylor.2–4
- 4Volpe homered to left center (418 feet).2–2
- 3Domínguez homered to right center (377 feet).2–1
- 3Carroll homered to right (384 feet), Perdomo scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 53%
- ML ARI -125 / NYY +105
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 47%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.2 pts
- ARI: Elo 50.1%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- ARI -114
- NYY +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.4 – 4.1 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1528 | 1536 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | −20 | ARI: Corbin Burnes: team allows 0.35 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYY: Will Warren: team allows 1.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI 0 Elo | ARI 50.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 53.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 52.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ARI | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 306.8 | Runs scored | 12.01st of 30 |
| 25th of 305.3 | Runs allowed | 4.722nd of 30 |
| 10th of 30+1.5 | Margin | +7.31st of 30 |
| 10th of 301517 | Opponent Elo | 15197th of 30 |
| 5th of 301528 | Elo rating | 15363rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024) |  ARI |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 86–76 | 89–83 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 37–47 | 60–75 |
| Underdog | 49–29 | 29–8 |
| Overs–unders | 96–65–1 | 95–76–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 2–4 NYY in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.