Milwaukee Brewers at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Brice TurangBatting1-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Nestor CortesPitching2.0 IP, 8 ER, 2 K
Yankees- Aaron JudgeBatting4-6, 3 HR, 8 RBI
- Max FriedPitching4.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Turang homered to center (412 feet), Mitchell scored.9–20
- 8Bauers doubled to right, Haase scored.7–20
- 7Peraza homered to left (379 feet), Volpe scored.6–20
- 6Judge doubled to right, Bellinger scored.6–18
- 6Bellinger singled to right, Grisham scored, Bellinger to second.6–17
- 5Yelich singled to right, Turang scored.6–16
- 5Chourio grounded out to pitcher, Capra scored, Turang to second.5–16
- 4Judge homered to center (425 feet), Goldschmidt scored.4–16
- 4Bellinger hit sacrifice fly to left, Grisham scored.4–14
- 4Hoskins singled to center, Chourio scored, Contreras to second.4–13
- 3Chisholm Jr. homered to right center (442 feet).3–13
- 3Judge homered to left center (396 feet), Grisham scored, Goldschmidt scored and Bellinger scored.3–12
- 3Bellinger reached on infield single to first, Domínguez scored, Goldschmidt to second, Grisham to third.3–8
- 2Volpe homered to left (349 feet), Judge scored and Chisholm Jr. scored.3–7
- 2Turang scored on error, Yelich safe at first on throwing error by pitcher Fried, Chourio safe at third on error.3–4
- 2Turang grounded into fielder's choice to second, Mitchell scored on throwing error by shortstop Volpe, Capra out at second.2–4
- 2Capra singled to center, Frelick scored, Mitchell to second.1–4
- 1Wells homered to left center (372 feet).0–4
- 1Judge homered to left (468 feet).0–3
- 1Bellinger homered to right center (451 feet).0–2
- 1Goldschmidt homered to left center (413 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 60%
- ML MIL +140 / NYY -165
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.2 pts
- NYY: Elo 53.7%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- NYY -149
- MIL +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 3.8 – 4.7 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1530 | 1529 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | −1 | MIL: Nestor Cortes: team allows 0.48 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYY: Max Fried: team allows 0.06 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +26 Elo | NYY 53.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 58.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 57.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIL | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 5.03rd of 30 |
| 4th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.19th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+0.8 | Margin | +0.92nd of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 4th of 3046–35 | Road vs home | 44–3711th of 30 |
| 17th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149823rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 301530 | Elo rating | 15294th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024) |  MIL |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 86–77 | 89–83 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 40–54 | 60–75 |
| Underdog | 46–23 | 29–8 |
| Overs–unders | 88–75 | 95–76–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 3–4 NYY in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.